2019 would see the workings of a divided house and Senate in the US. Tump would look to work on his key campaign promises related to immigration and this stance would lead to significant friction in the political sphere in the US. The government shutdown has the potential to carry on for a longer time – as Trump sees no other option but to continue to hold out for the wall funding
Indian general election is an important event for the Rupee. Recent state elections don’t provide confidence that the BJP has a clear path for victory. Any whiff of a hung parliament could crash Indian markets and INR. While we expect that BJP would scrape through, the narrative and polling before elections would create significant volatility in the Rupee.
Hence between Feb 2019 budget and April/May election, Expect INR to be under pressure purely thanks to LS Poll apart from other factors.